Actualmente los mercados mundiales se encuentran en una etapa en la cual los fundamentales de las empresas han pasado a un segundo plano. El mercado está respondiendo a noticias económicas y políticas que hacen que la "función" o la habilidad de escoger empresas con buenos fundamentales no necesariamente termine con resultados positivos. Además, la mayoría de mercados están presentando altas correlaciones, lo cual indica que la diversificación por sectores o la diversificación geográfica no funcione tan bien como debería. Por ejemplo, el mercado colombiano presenta una correlación históricamente alta con el mercado americano, por lo cual a la hora de invertir en la BVC en estos momentos no es solo necesario un buen entendimiento de las fundamentales de las empresas listadas en la bolsa local, sino un entendimiento de la situación económica global.
 |
| Haga click para agrandar. Correlación S&P 500 - IGBC. |
En el siguiente video, Jim Bianco, de Bianco Research ahonda un poco más en las altas correlaciones que está presentando entre los activos del mercado americano.
let's go back to the markets. it's not easy picking stocks out there when correlations are running high and fundamental drives taking a back seat. what's causing this mentality in the markets and how long will it last? let's bring in jim. certainly the correlations have been running high for a verylong time. do you see breaks in these high correlations? not at all. as a matter of fact in the last couple of weeks, the averagestock in the s&p 500 has been 85% correlated to the indexitself. that's an 80-year high back to 1926 and we've never seen it this high before. and the reason that it's happening, i think, is all these companies share the same fundamental. what we've been talking about on this show and we talk about all the time, whether or not europe gets solved or doesn't get solved.tomorrow whether the fed gives us a hint on qe 3 or doesn't.that's the fundamental that drives everything. that's why everything goes up together and everything goes down together. it's karen. it seems like that is certainly the perception they trade that way. their businesses are not all affected equally. in periods prior to this where you've seen this correlation so high, how long did that last? well, that's it. there hasn't been a period as high as we've seen right now. in prior periods it's usually been in the midst of a crisis like 2008. the correlations are actually higher now than they were in 2008. i think this correlation is going to last as long as we think that there are government bailouts or central bank money printing around the corner. when the government goes away, when the central bank returns to normal, i think the correlations disappear. we're nowhere near that happening right now. it's going to be a very difficult stock pickers environment because all of the stocks go up together on up days and down together on down days. jim, i'll let you speak to joe in a second but like mcdonald's made an all-time high yesterday and down a percent today. there's no doubt that your dad is 100% on. there are names out there that seem impervious and we mentioned mcdonald's forever on this show and frankly i don't see anythingthat's going to stop it right now. obviously that's more of a statement than a question. i do think there are some names out there that still work regardless. yeah. the correlation is not 100.it's the highest it's ever been. there are names out there but i would argue that in this environment, this is the opposite of the '90s by the way. the 90s correlations were the lowest we've seen in several generations. that was the ultimate stock picker's market. this is opposite of that right now. it's very difficult to find stocks because whether or not we have a greek no confidence vote on friday or QE 3 tomorrow or not qe 3 tomorrow, that's going to drive the stocks. in some respects the stocks like Mcdonalds and stuff could be just higher beta or lower beta versions of the market. they don't go up as much or they go up more depending on which one you talk about. the catalyst for this is government intervention coming with a trillion dollars of something. central banks or governments to fix a problem that overwhelms the market and that's why i think this is an unusual period that we that we see right now. in terms of periods of high correlation, are those periods typically down periods in the market or up periods or are they mixed? typically flat to down periods in the market. you rarely have a period of sustained high correlations in markets rallying. even in 2009 and 2010 when the market was rallying, the correlations tended to go away. it doesn't mean they are always down periods. in 2009 and 2010, the story had shifted. it was more a story of a recovery and the economy and maybe the government was done with the bailouts and we could start picking through the winners and losers within all of the available companies. but another we're back to a story about governments and stram banks and that's why correlations have returned. great to have you with us. you pointed out mcdonald's. nike. ralph lauren. all of them made 52-week highs in yesterday's session. does that mean that stock picking is even more important or is it -- what conclusion would you draw since you did point that out? i don't think it's more important. the point is there are names out there that work regardless of tape. obviously if this thing gets belongoned no one is safe. it feels like it wants to trade triple digits. the common denominator for the names you mentioned is earnings visibility.when you are able to have that, your stock can do well. (CNBC Script)
C72.
